I think we can all agree that GPT-4 completes many tasks at human-level proficiency. It is imperfect in odd ways -- it can write software like a smart MIT undergrad, but can't do basic task planning like an entry-level EA. It speaks all languages, but can barely do math. Suppose the progress doesn't stop, just like GPT-4 was better than 3, GPT-5 is capable of basic agentic behavior -- i.e. able to accept a task, work on it for a while, and return results.
Some modest fraction of Upwork tasks can now be done with a handful of electrons. Suppose everyone has an agent like this they can hire. Suppose everyone has 1,000 agents like this they can hire...
What does one do in a world like this? What do you long or short?
Markets
- In a post-AGI world, where does value accrue?
- What happens to NVIDIA, Microsoft?
- What happens to Internet bandwidth? Should we buy copper?
Real-estate
- If globalization is the metaphor, and the thing can just write all software, is SF the new Detroit?
- How does AI change wealth inequality? Is all beachfront property mispriced?
Energy and datacenter
- If it does become an energy game, what's the trade?
- Across the entire datacenter supply chain, which components are hardest to scale up 10x? What is the CoWoS of datacenter?
- Is coal mispriced?
Nations
- Who wins and loses?
- $250b of India’s GDP exports are essentially GPT-4 tokens… what happens now?
- Are there any relevant analogies from history we can compare to?
- What is the euclidean distance of reskilling in prior revolutions, and how does AGI compare? The typist became an EA, can the software engineer become a machinist?
- Electrification and assembly lines lead to high unemployment and the New Deal, including the Works Progress Administration, a federal project that employed 8.5m Americans with a tremendous budget… does that repeat?
Inflation
- If AI is truly deflationary, how would we know? What chart or metric would show that first?
- How should one think of deflation if demand for intellectual goods continues to grow as production costs go down?
Geopolitics
- What happens with China? With Russia?
- What is the likely "Taiwan event", and what would be a leading indicator for it?